Speaker Pelosi Went to Taiwan. What’s the Big Deal?

High-ranking officials visit other countries all the time. No one bats an eye, except staffers who work in diplomatic circles. They operate under a high level of stress to avoid international incidents so that the American public can go about its business. Speaker Pelosi’s visit is different, though. Those of us who follow China know that this is the kind of thing that can quickly escalate and not in a good way.

A Quick, Over Simplified History of Taiwan

Taiwan remained undisturbed for millennia until that slowly began to change around the 3rd Century. That is when China started sending expeditions to this island only about 100 miles from its coast and would continue to do so for the next 1200 years. Other nations would later also take an interest in the island.

Taiwan became a Dutch colony in the 17th century for a hot minute (20 years). Although brief, their economic investments in the largely feudal territory would lay the groundwork for future economic growth. In 1683, the Chinese Qing Dynasty took control of Taiwan further developing Taiwan’s infrastructure (railroads, harbors, and roads). But after 200 or so years, Imperial Japan took over the reins. They ruled with an iron fist, but Taiwan’s economy catapulted under their administration.

After World War II, the intention was to return Taiwan to China, but that was not specified in a clear way by the Allied powers who won the war. China’s resumption of its civil war (they had taken a short break to fight the Japanese) shortly after complicated the question of Taiwan. The eventual winner of this war was the Chinese Communist Party under Mao Zedong in 1949, but Taiwan had lived under Nationalist rule (the eventual loser of the civil war) since 1945. The People’s Republic of China (PRC), China as we know it today, would argue that they legally won Taiwan back. US policy since the end of World War II, however, would further muddy the waters.

Taiwan is a sovereign nation….but it is not.

Today, Taiwan is not even a member of the United Nations. That may be surprising because Taiwan acts like a sovereign nation and one can make the legal case that indeed it is. It has its own democratic government, its own military, and it maintains relations, albeit informal, with other countries. But the question of who it belongs to has remained unsettled, thanks in part to diplomatic whiplash by the US.

Initially, after World War II, the US essentially ignored Taiwan, even after communists won the Chinese civil war. But that changed with the Cold War. At the onset of the Korean war in 1950, President Harry Truman sent the US 7th Fleet to the Taiwan Strait to prevent communist forces from taking Taiwan. Taiwan enjoyed military support from the United States and was able to develop independent of China. Then Vietnam happened. Nixon, with hopes that China would pressure Vietnam and help the US withdraw from that quagmire, opened diplomatic relations with China. It is also during this period that Taiwan lost its seat in the United Nations to China. Ouch! Jimmy Carter would then formally end diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979.

The current status of US policy towards Taiwan is known as the “One China” policy. Under this policy, the US sells defensive military equipment to Taiwan and pursues economic interests, but still recognizes the PRC as the sole government of China. We don’t even call our embassy in Taiwan an embassy, but rather The American Institute of Taiwan. In other words, the US does not have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, only unofficial ones. Yes, it is complicated, but this policy has maintained the peace in that part of the world for several decades.

In this state of ambiguity, Taiwan became a democracy with a booming economy, while China initially faltered economically under communist rule. Clearly, China’s economy has grown in recent years and so has its military, but it has drifted in a different direction than Taiwan. They share cultural similarities, but from an outsider looking in, they are two very different nations.

Why did Speaker Pelosi’s Visit Upset China?

China gets upset anytime anyone treats Taiwan like a sovereign nation. In the eyes of Chinese leadership, Taiwan belongs to China. The visit of a high-ranking official, like speaker Pelosi, has the air of formal diplomatic relations. There is a reason why the last time a high-ranking official visited Taiwan was 25 years ago. China wants to squash any attempts by Taiwan towards independence so when the US slightly moves outside the bounds of the “One China,” it feels threatened.

Why We Should be Concerned

It is one thing for China to yell and scream about Pelosi’s visit. It is a whole other matter when it sends ballistic missiles over Taiwan and conducts military exercises encircling the entire island. That is where we find ourselves now. These exercises will also take place within a Japanese exclusive economic zone (an area within 200 miles from a country’s coast where they can conduct economic activity). It is a very aggressive move by China that can quickly escalate out of control. The US, Japan, and Taiwan will all have to play their hands right.

A war between Taiwan and China would have real consequences on the every day American. We are too interconnected with both China and Taiwan for it not to. Even if the US does not intervene militarily, the effects would go well beyond delays of Amazon orders. It would put unbelievable strain on an already faltering economy, affecting anything from the housing market to the availability of any type of electronic product (cell phones, AC units, ATM machines, etc).

Chances are this could all blow over as it did during a similar crisis back in 1995. When Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s visited Cornell University, his alma mater, China also responded with military exercises. The US sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region and China relented. War is not in China’s best interest (is it ever?), but a few things are different now.

1. The military build-up is a lot larger than ever before and China’s military is also a lot stronger today than it was back then. Their leaders may feel they have a better chance of success.
2. The Russia-Ukraine War. China has been watching the US response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the United States provides aid to Ukraine, it has not intervened militarily. Will China read this as weakness on the part of the United States? Does it feel like this is its chance to gain full control of Taiwan, especially if it believes the next US president will be Republican and more likely to defend Taiwan?

These are all questions the experts are debating, and we hope the current US administration is also weighing carefully. Even if an invasion does not occur (and we all pray it does not), China is testing the limits of the international community and is likely to make this behavior standard operating procedure in the future if no one gets in its way. In the meantime, we all wait with gritted teeth to see how this crisis will play out.