We Provoked China. At What Cost?

As China’s military exercises come to an end, we are getting a clearer picture of the repercussions from Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Her visit might have been well-intentioned, but the outcome is less than stellar. I ask you to say a little prayer for our friends at the State Department who cover that part of the world. It appears as though their years of careful diplomacy just went up in smoke.

The Purpose of Diplomacy

The purpose of diplomacy is to win something in return or at least it should be. The win could be as simple as developing goodwill among counterparts and increasing lines of communication or as complicated as preventing war between two hot-headed world leaders.

Diplomacy happens at all levels of government, from two lowly officers exchanging beers at a social event in a foreign country to high-level meetings between heads of state (world leaders). But even the lowliest analyst or officer (in the State Department, Pentagon, or three-letter agency) knows that when you interact with a foreign official, every word, every action needs to be thought through.

Diplomacy must be accompanied by clearly defined goals and every move is guided by that goal. It may not always occur in some fancy meeting or highly publicized event, but diplomacy always has purpose. Diplomacy can even be used to push buttons or provoke but always with an end goal in mind. It can take years for incremental wins, but it can also easily all come tumbling down.

That is what is happening here. When a high-level government official goes to a very temperamental part of the world, even if it is a gutsy move, but ignores stated diplomatic goals, the effects can be devastating. In Pelosi’s defense, she is a politician and not a diplomat, but the damage is the same nonetheless. Sigh.

The Outcomes from the Visit

Positive Outcomes

I always like to start with the good news so let’s explore some of the positive results of her visit.

• These military exercises give us an idea of how China might fight a war against Taiwan. Military analysts have an opportunity here to study these exercises and find ways to counteract China’s operations in the future if they were to blockade and/or invade Taiwan. That is a good thing.

Unfortunately, those are all the positives I can think of. Now for the negatives.

Negative Outcomes

The negatives are pretty lengthy and a tad bit depressing. Tighten your seat belts because it is going to be a bumpy ride.

• China has halted talks on several issues with the United States.
  — China-U.S. Theater Commanders Talk — CANCELLED.
  — China-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT) — CANCELLED.
  — China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) meetings — CANCELLED.
  — China-U.S. cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants. — SUSPENDED.
  — China-U.S. cooperation on legal assistance in criminal matters — SUSPENDED.
  — China-U.S. cooperation against transnational crimes — SUSPENDED.
  — China-U.S. counternarcotics cooperation — SUSPENDED.
  — China-U.S. talks on climate change — SUSPENDED.

The first three help keep military-to-military conversations going to limit misunderstandings, especially during a lot of military activity, let’s say, during exercises for example. With these channels closed, both sides are at risk of escalating over a misinterpretation of intentions.

The last five are a much greater loss for the US than for China. For example, since China is the world’s primary CO2 pollutant, suspending climate talks is one less headache for China to worry bout. China is doing its happy dance right about now.

• From now on, China will no longer respect Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace nor Japanese or Philippine Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). These exercises violated the above-mentioned waters, airspace, and EEZs. Since no one stopped them, it puts no restraint on China from doing it again in the future. This will make it harder to determine if an exercise is just an exercise or preparations for a Chinese take over of Taiwan.
• It undermined the US presidency and made the US look weak. The visit did not do any favors for the Biden administration or the US as a whole. Because her visit undermined official United States policy (read my previous article, “Speaker Pelosi Went to Taiwan. What’s the Big Deal?” for clarification on that policy), it makes the President seem like he is not respected by people from his own party. It doesn’t play well in foreign circles. And if the President looks weak, the US looks weak.
• Taiwan is less safe. The Speaker’s reasons, to show support for Taiwan, might have been well-intentioned, but it made Taiwan less safe. At least in the short term. A China that will now consistently violate Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace makes for a less safe Taiwan. A United States that is viewed as weak and unwilling to intervene also makes for a less safe Taiwan. I hope you get the picture.

So Did Anything Good Come Out of This?

Bottom line, the visit undermined a lot of diplomacy by very hard-working people, but it also made the region a more dangerous place. So was there any benefit from Speaker Pelosi’s visit? The benefits are minimal. The drawbacks, on the other hand, well, the word disastrous comes to mind.